Sponsored Post Delivery Odds Estimator
Enter what you plan to offer a LinkedIn creator per post. We compare it to 239 real sponsored-post bookings and tell you how often offers at that price actually ended in a published post. Free, no account, nothing leaves your browser.
Enter what you plan to offer per post to see how often bookings at that price actually ended in a published post on Naano's marketplace.
What happens to an offer, by price band
Every sponsored-post booking created on Naano between 14 June and 1 August 2026, excluding bookings still awaiting a decision from the delivery-rate denominator. “Never answered” means the offer window closed without the creator responding at all.
| Price per post | Bookings | Published | Never answered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under €200The largest band by volume. 20 distinct buying brands. | 114 | 30.8% | 34.9% |
| €200 – €399The weakest band in the sample: the highest share of offers a creator never answered. | 59 | 19.0% | 39.3% |
| €400 – €599Directional only — this band rests on 6 distinct buying brands. | 25 | 42.1% | 28.0% |
| €600 and aboveThe strongest observed delivery band. 14 distinct buying brands. | 41 | 80.6% | 8.1% |
[Naano Index, n=239 bookings, 14 June – 1 August 2026]
What brands actually paid, by audience size
Transacted prices per sponsored post, brand-side and excluding VAT. Use these to sanity-check an offer — but remember that follower count explains under a third of what creators charge, so a specific creator's own listed rate is always the better anchor.
| Creator audience | n | P25 | Median | P75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5,000 followers | 53 | €48 | €84 | €120 |
| 5,000 – 10,000 followers | 47 | €105 | €180 | €426 |
| 10,000 – 25,000 followers | 98 | €120 | €312 | €360 |
| 25,000 – 50,000 followers | 30 | €315 | €600 | €600 |
| 50,000+ followers | 11 | €608 | €720 | €900 |
[Naano Index, n=239 bookings, 14 June – 1 August 2026]. The full report, including listed-price dispersion and niche premiums, is in the LinkedIn sponsored post price index 2026.
Method, and what this tool does not claim
Source.Naano's own marketplace database, queried read-only on 3 August 2026 at 21:10 UTC. Every sponsored-post booking created between 14 June and 1 August 2026, normalised to price per post (n=239), plus the live listed rate of every creator open for bookings at that time (n=719). Bookings placed by Naano itself as a buyer are excluded. No cell below ten observations is published, and no individual creator, brand or amount appears anywhere.
This is a correlation, not a causal claim. Paying €600 does not make a post appear. A brand paying €600 usually also has a real budget, a written brief, and someone internally who chases the campaign — any of which could be doing the work. What is directly measurable, and is a creator-side behaviour, is the observed difference in unanswered-offer rates.
Sample caveats. The €400–€599 band rests on 25 bookings from only 6 distinct buying brands and should be read as directional. The dataset spans seven weeks; it will be re-cut each quarter and the figures here will move.
What is deliberately absent. No impressions, reach or cost-per-lead figure appears on this page. LinkedIn does not expose post impressions for third-party posts, and our tracked-link coverage is currently too partial to publish a clicks-per-post benchmark honestly. Both will be added when the underlying data supports them.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds a sponsored LinkedIn post offer actually gets published?
Observed delivery rates vary by price band, but the relationship is correlational rather than causal. Across 239 sponsored-post bookings placed on the Naano marketplace between 14 June and 1 August 2026, 80.6% of settled bookings priced at €600 or more per post ended in a published post, against 30.8% of those priced under €200. The rate for the €200–€399 band was 19.0% and for €400–€599 it was 42.1% [Naano Index snapshot, 3 August 2026, n=239 created bookings].
Why do cheap sponsored post offers fail?
The snapshot cannot establish why an individual offer fails. It does show that 34.9% of offers under €200 and 39.3% of offers between €200 and €399 expired without the creator responding, versus 8.1% of offers above €600. Price may be associated with brand readiness, brief quality, creator availability or other factors, so these rates are risk signals rather than causal estimates.
What is the median price actually paid for a sponsored LinkedIn post?
€84 per post for a creator under 5,000 followers, €180 for 5,000–10,000, €312 for 10,000–25,000, €600 for 25,000–50,000, and €720 above 50,000 followers. These are transacted prices, brand-side and excluding VAT, from bookings placed on Naano between June and August 2026 [Naano Index, n=239].
Does paying more actually cause a post to be delivered?
Not necessarily, and this tool does not claim it does. The relationship is a correlation across a young dataset: a brand paying €600 typically also has a real budget, a properly written brief, and an internal owner who follows up, and any of those could be doing the work. What is directly measurable is that low-priced offers are far more likely to go unanswered — and that part is a creator-side behaviour you can price around.
Should I just offer the creator's listed rate?
In most cases, yes, for a first booking. Follower tier is a weak guide — follower count explains under a third of the variance in what creators charge (log-log R-squared of 0.290 across 719 creators open for bookings at the snapshot time), and at 10,000–25,000 followers the spread between the cheapest and dearest tenth of creators was 25.3x. The creator's own published rate is a far better anchor than any tier benchmark, including this one.
Book at the listed rate, and skip the guessing
Every creator on Naano publishes their own flat fee per post, so you never open with a number you had to invent. Contracts, escrow and invoicing handled — no monthly platform fee.
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